FEC Data Released Over the Weekend Shows Democrats Underfunding Potentially Competitive Swing Seats
July 20, 2022 — A WelcomePAC analysis of just-released quarterly fundraising data combined with 2020 election results demonstrates Democrats are conceding at least five potentially flippable House districts.
There are 7 GOP-held districts where Trump received 50-51% in 2020. Democratic candidates started Q3 with less than $200,000 in cash-on-hand in 5 of them.
Those include districts held by democracy-undermining Republicans such as Bill Huizenga (MI-04), who signed onto the failed Texas amicus brief to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and Michael Turner (OH-10), who voted against the formation of the Jan. 6th Commission. Both Huizenga and Turner’s Democratic challengers kicked off Q3 with less than $6,000 in cash on hand — effectively giving these Republicans a free pass after undermining democracy.
“With democracy itself on the ballot this fall, you’d think Democrats would be doing everything we can to minimize the chances of a Republican-controlled House,” said Lauren Harper, co-founder of WelcomePAC. “But, unfortunately, you would be wrong. We can’t win if we don't compete.”
The analysis also found that Democratic candidates in 18 of 29 GOP-held districts where Trump won with 50-54% of the vote started Q3 with less than $100,000 in cash-on-hand.
Given the reduction in overall competitive seats due to redistricting, Democrats must compete in potentially competitive center-right districts to bolster their fragile House majority. These are districts that Democrats like Jared Golden (ME-02) have proven winnable by building independent brands that appeal to center-right swing voters.
The lack of investment in these potentially winnable districts is more shocking in comparison to the more than $8 million that Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Democratic opponent, Marcus Flowers, reported raising. Flowers’ vast fundraising haul comes despite the fact that Trump won Greene’s newly-drawn district with more than 68% of the vote in 2020, making it one of the reddest districts in the country.
“Democrats are pouring millions into lost causes that feel good, while ignoring beatable Republicans,” said Harper.
The full analysis can be accessed at welcomepac.org/conceding-democracy.
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ABOUT WELCOMEPAC:
WelcomePAC is growing a big tent Democratic Party by advocating for smarter investments to win the middle and recruiting and supporting Democratic challengers in winnable but overlooked Republican-held districts. Learn more at welcomepac.org.
ABOUT CONCEDING DEMOCRACY:
Conceding Democracy is a quarterly report produced by WelcomePAC. The analysis combines campaign finance reports submitted to the FEC by all congressional candidates with data on Trump performance under the newly-drawn district lines to evaluate how much Democrats are investing in potentially competitive seats.
Since WelcomePAC’s launch in 2021, this report and perspective on inefficient allocation of Democratic resources has been featured in NBC News, CNN, The Washington Post, and The Bulwark.
In its first report, WelcomePAC called for significant investment into flipping anti-democracy GOP Rep. Ken Calvert’s CA-41 (where Trump won with less than 50% of the vote). Since that report, the race has received considerable attention as a rare potential pickup opportunity this fall and political ratings agencies have suggested an increased likelihood of Democratic victory.